Friday, December 14, 2018

Resistance is futile. Brexit end game.

How will Brexit play out?

Theresa May has just survived her leadership challenge.  The meaningful vote on her deal has been kicked into the long grass and is now scheduled for early next year (2019).

I've been thinking about what the possible eventualities could be.   And I must as a Remainer I'm pleased with what my crystal ball is telling me.

As a "hard-remainer" I'm actually tempted not even to bother pushing for a #peoplesvote.  I'll tell you why:  Living in Spain and Andorra for the last 13 years I can tell you the Euro and Schengen are the two BEST parts of the EU that you can appreciate on a daily or weekly basis.

The ability to travel across borders without any passport control, and then being able to spend the money that is already in your pocket without visiting any bureaux de change and losing a % in the process is wonderful.

As a programmer I like logical flows, so I've knocked up a little flow chart to see what will happen depending on if there is a Norway+ deal, May's Deal, No Deal or a People's Vote.



In the event of the UK actually leaving the EU, all paths lead back to EU membership; either because of the "Vassal" state - which is pointless as all EU rules have to be obeyed but with no ability to change any (Norway+ or May's deal and backstop), or utter economic chaos, such as the "elimination of UK manufacturing", destruction of the welfare state (that means no benefits - what did you expect voting for Rees Mogg, Redwood & IDS??) with "no deal".

Norway+ means single market, free movement, customs union; no "free trade deals" etc.
May's deal means single market, free movement, customs union because the "backstop" will kick in (that's why it's there), and the same arguments about "max fac" or any other nonsense will remain as they do now and have prevented any free trade deal.   Only if the border is in the Irish sea will it work, but the UK government will never accept that because of the Scottish problem - Edinburgh will (rightly) never accept that one part of the UK gets the benefits of EU membership, and they don't.  It is difficult to silence an angry Scotsman.

If there is "no deal"... There will be total carnage.  In a way I would like this outcome.  It would restore some faith in the (mainstream) politicians who argued to remain, and shine a light on the "sun lit uplands" that the extreme Brexiteers promised.   It wouldn't be the eventual outcome for long.  As inflation would soar, the Pound going less than the Euro, interest rates hitting the roof, unemployment would rise, pensions would shrink.  The people that believed the hype would soon turn on their masters.   They would be begging to be go back to what they had before - and that is EU membership.

However things have moved on over in EUland.  If we want back in... all new members of the bloc are required to sign up to Schengen and adopts the Euro.    For me... not a problem,  for some others... well let's say not the outcome they were hoping for.

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